Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -4% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 2,993 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
With the Stanley Cup Finals not beginning until Wednesday, we’re going to wait until tomorrow or later to revisit our futures portfolio. Today, just NASCAR and IndyCar.
IndyCar at Road America
Marcus Ericsson’s raced well at Road America these last two seasons, always finished higher than he started. This year, he’s starting near the front, and coming off that Indy 500 win two weeks ago, one stands to wonder if the Swede is getting his legs under him at Chip Ganassi Racing in his third year driving for that team.
Pick: Marcus Ericsson to win +1000. Low confidence.
NASCAR Cup Series at Sonoma
The odds are so tight on Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson in this race, and Elliott hasn’t won at Sonoma before. Behind them, the value looks great on Chris Buescher and Michael McDowell, but neither has a car that’s consistently good enough to make them our only play of the week. Tyler Reddick’s starting fifth, he’s racing to win, and while he doesn’t have a great result in his one career start at Sonoma, he’s finished in the top five in two of his ten career road course races in the Cup Series. We like him at this price.
Pick: Tyler Reddick to win +1800. Low confidence.
