Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,572 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We rely heavily on Nate Silver’s presidential election model for our election futures.
Active markets today: MLB moneylines. MLB futures are off for the weekend.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’ve tried a similar approach this year. We’re 93–82 so far, down 6.07 units. We had a good week last week. We had a bad week this week. Make of that what you will.
Kansas City @ Colorado
We’re still curious about whether the Royals are falling off. It looked before the Guardians series like that was what was happening, and it’s looked like it again since. In the end, we don’t think enough of Tanner Gordon or the Rockies to hold off from this.
Pick: Kansas City to win –153. Low confidence. (Singer and Gordon must start.)
Toronto @ Seattle
José Berríos has been due for regression, and it looked like it started to set in on Tuesday. Julio Rodríguez’s expected absence is rough here, and maybe not fully priced in yet, but this is one George Kirby and Seattle should win.
Pick: Seattle to win –140. Low confidence. (Berríos and Kirby must start.)
