Editor’s Note: Joe would downplay how successful this is, but over a sample size of 332 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), his picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 6% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high), meaning he’s been good enough to consistently make the people money.
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Two picks for today’s games.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, Spotrac, and ESPN is often used and/or cited.
- The writeups often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. This is because in general, picks are being made because the numbers I’m using indicate the pick is beyond a certain confidence threshold, and I’m not coming across enough red flags to pass on it.
Baltimore @ Toronto
The Blue Jays’ rotation isn’t much.
Even with Marcus Stroman’s 3.82 FIP over more than 100 innings, Toronto starters rank in the bottom five in fWAR.
But one piece of it has been encouraging.
25-year-old rookie Trent Thornton has a 4.60 FIP in 18 starts—not phenomenal, but solid, especially for a pitcher who was hardly a prospect entering 2019. Thornton, formerly of the Astros organization, has struggled with walks at points this year (4.16 BB/9 IP), a departure from his career in the minor leagues (1.61 BB/9 IP). Still, he’s produced a few gems, including a six-and-two-thirds-inning scoreless outing against his former employer on June 16th. He did walk three in that outing, but his seven strikeouts were the bigger story.
Thornton is not going to be Marcus Stroman for the Blue Jays. But he might turn into a reliable starter Toronto can lock into their future plans.
We’ll see.
Pick: Under 11 (-115). Low confidence.
New York (AL) @ Tampa Bay
James Paxton has been good as a Yankee. He’s struck out more than a batter per inning. His FIP is under four.
But James Paxton hasn’t been great, becoming one of a few starting pitchers holding the Yankees back from being the best team in baseball.
Paxton is walking 9.9% of opposing hitters, his highest rate since entering the MLB. He’s allowing 1.28 home runs per nine innings, continuing a damaging trend that began last year. He’s only averaging roughly five innings per start. His opponents’ average launch angle has climbed dramatically, from 12.3° in 2017 to 17.7° over 2019 to date. And while launch angle isn’t fully in Paxton’s control, it’s a poor indicator in that it means hitters are able to do more of what they want with Paxton’s deliveries.
Paxton has been, at times, a dominant pitcher, and that dominance has been significant enough that it wouldn’t be at all surprising for him to flip a switch and become the best pitcher in baseball for a stretch. But right now, Paxton is underwhelming, and while it isn’t really a problem at this point, it could become one for the Yankees.
Pick: Over 7.5 (-110). Low confidence.
