Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 3,374 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). Our ETA for having the overall number back profitable is currently November 7th, the likeliest date of a World Series Game 7 and the eve of both college basketball season and Election Day.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Just the auto racing today.
Formula 1 British Grand Prix
There are probably two ways to think about this. The first is that Max Verstappen is starting on the front row, that he assumedly has the fastest car, that Red Bull has hit its marks repeatedly this season, and that because the weather’s going to hold, yesterday probably isn’t too indicative of today anyway. The other is that Lewis Hamilton’s car looked better yesterday than it usually has, and that he’s going to be more set on racing for a win than he’s usually been. Were we in a comfortable position with our average ROI, we’d probably ride Verstappen and play to not lose. Given where we’re at, though, we might as well play Hamilton and take a shot at a meaningful win.
Pick: Lewis Hamilton +1500. Low confidence.
Honda Indy 200 at Mid-Ohio
You could say that because Felix Rosenqvist is winless this year, and because his car hasn’t seemed to have the speed, he shouldn’t be expected to do much besides hang around the front today. You could also, though, say that Rosenqvist’s performance yesterday in qualifying is being undervalued, and that hanging around the front is, in IndyCar, enough to make one a contender right now, given how competitive the series is. In other words: There might be a discount on guys who haven’t won yet.
Pick: Felix Rosenqvist to win +1100. Low confidence.
Kwik Trip 250 (NASCAR Cup Series at Road America)
There are a few approaches here. You could take Chase Briscoe, who qualified ahead of Kyle Larson but sits behind him in the odds. You could take Michael McDowell, who appeared undervalued at Sonoma and qualified well again here. We, though, are going to go the simple route here (this is part of what makes us more comfortable in the Hamilton play, though hitting this is much less likely than Verstappen winning). Chase Elliott is NASCAR’s best road course driver. Chase Elliott has had the best car recently, and through some measures, overall on the season. Chase Elliott was the best driver in qualifying. We overcomplicate a lot of these. We’re going to try not to overcomplicate this one.
Pick: Chase Elliott +375. Low confidence.
