Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 3,386 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). Our ETA for having the overall number back profitable is currently November 7th, the likeliest date of a World Series Game 7 and the eve of both college basketball season and Election Day.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer picks.
Formula 1 Hungarian Grand Prix
George Russell made a compelling case, but today still looks like Ferrari’s to lose, making the question whether Leclerc or Sainz offers better value. After some debate, we’re going with Leclerc on the basis that Ferrari will prioritize his outcome as they work to not self-sabotage.
Pick: Charles Leclerc to win +150. Low confidence.
Verizon 200 @ the Brickyard (NASCAR Cup Series @ IMS Road Course)
On the NASCAR side of things, we like Briscoe’s value. It comes in below his starting position, and while he’s failed to get the results he’s wanted at road courses so far this year, he does seem to have talent on them. We like the track position. We like the possibility. We like the upside.
Pick: Chase Briscoe to win +850. Low confidence.
