Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2.0% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,621 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.6% across 2,293 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We rely heavily on Nate Silver’s presidential election model for our election futures.
Active markets today: MLB moneylines. Normally, we bet election futures on Saturday, but we’re waiting for Nate Silver to relaunch his model now that the presumptive Democratic nominee has changed. There should be a bonus election mini-portfolio at some point this week.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’ve tried a similar approach this year. We’re 105–92–2 so far, down 8.42 units. We’ve gotten within reach of profitability a few times this year, but we haven’t been able to sustain a surge.
Texas @ Toronto
We’re mostly out on José Berríos, whose FIP and xERA are both over 5.00 and who’s striking out fewer batters this year than ever before. His .257 BABIP shouldn’t be expected to hold up, and lately, it hasn’t been, with a 7.78 ERA over four July starts. That’s with a .300 BABIP in those starts, which is close to average.
Jon Gray is always a little scary to bet on just because the Rangers tend to move him between roles, but he’s a solid pitcher who’s been pitching well lately. There’s less of a chance of a mid-game or pregame sale for the Rangers, too.
Pick: Texas to win –110. Low confidence. (Gray and Berríos must start.)
Minnesota @ Detroit
That sale piece is relevant with this one as well. The chance is low that the Tigers deal someone (it’s higher that they pitch Kenta Maeda in relief, which is part of why this line is so short), but it’s real. That chance isn’t really there for the Twins. We do still perceive the Twins as more unpredictable than their fellow AL playoff contenders, but we haven’t dug into the truth behind that. Even if it’s true, it cuts both ways. We’ll take the buyer to beat the seller and take the series.
Pick: Minnesota to win –168. Low confidence. (Ober and Faedo must start.)
Chicago (NL) @ Kansas City
This is great value for Cole Ragans against a team approaching some trade deadline sales. Why’s it available? Our guess is it has to do with Javier Assad’s 3.15 ERA.
Assad hasn’t lasted through the fourth inning in either of his last two starts. On Monday, he walked six of the 17 batters he faced. His FIP’s a decent–not–great 4.60, and his xERA’s a little bit worse, indicating he isn’t doing something special in terms of generating weak contact. He’s not a bad pitcher, but he’s been pitching badly, and he isn’t as good as his topline number suggests.
Pick: Kansas City to win –166. Low confidence. (Assad and Ragans must start.)
Note: We updated this post to reflect the first bet listed was on Texas, not Toronto. It ended up being a moot point, because Jon Gray exited during warmups, but apologies either way for the mistake.
