Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 3,382 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). Our ETA for having the overall number back profitable is currently November 7th, the likeliest date of a World Series Game 7 and the eve of both college basketball season and Election Day.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Formula 1: French Grand Prix
Does Charles Leclerc have Max Verstappen’s speed this weekend? It’s unclear, but Ferrari’s been fast of late, and really the whole year, given how many of their pitfalls were, well, pit-falls. As the underdog from the pole, at a circuit where Verstappen’s won but only once, we’ll ride Leclerc today.
Pick: Charles Leclerc to win +170. Low confidence.
IndyCar: Hy-Vee Salute to Farmers 300 (Iowa, if you couldn’t guess that – Race 2)
Yesterday’s Newgarden odds were short, and these are even shorter, but he kind of ran away with yesterday, and as was the problem heading into the weekend, there just aren’t any good alternatives. We’ll take the favorite as he goes for both the sweep and the season standings lead.
Pick: Josef Newgarden to win +250. Low confidence.
NASCAR Cup Series: M&M’s Fan Appreciation 400 (Pocono)
There’s a steep drop-off after the top four in the odds this week in NASCAR, with Ryan Blaney one of the first to present value going by the starting grid.
We don’t really know how Pocono’s going to run for the new car. My best guess is that it’ll be similar to the intermediate tracks, which have generally produced good racing this season but aren’t primed for huge surprises like superspeedways. Regardless of how it runs, there’s an angle on Blaney: He’s third in the overall standings, so he’s clearly driving well overall, which should apply to the most regular of tracks. He (and Penske at large) tend to be strong on superspeedways. If there’s any probability bonus on drivers who might need a win to make the playoffs, one should exist as much for Blaney as it does for Martin Truex Jr., whose odds are tight this week. It’s Blaney, for us, to win.
Pick: Ryan Blaney to win +1400. Low confidence.
