Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2.0% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,610 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.6% across 2,293 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We rely heavily on Nate Silver’s presidential election model for our election futures.
Active markets today: MLB moneylines. MLB futures are off for the weekend.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’ve tried a similar approach this year. We’re 101–85–2 so far, down 3.87 units. We’ve gotten within reach of profitability a few times this year, but we haven’t been able to sustain a surge. Right now, we most likely sit at least three days away.
Baltimore @ Texas
Dean Kremer is a weak spot for the Orioles. The underlying numbers pointed to this earlier in the year, but the situation has gotten worse since he returned from the IL. The Rangers have had a bad weekend so far, but we like them to avoid the sweep, and it appears the market agrees with us (albeit to a more cautious extent.)
Pick: Texas to win –128. Low confidence. (Kremer and Heaney must start.)
Boston @ Los Angeles
Similarly, we like the Red Sox to avoid this sweep, and part of this is the pitcher they’re facing. James Paxton is serviceable (unlike Kremer, at least for an aspiring World Series contender), but the control issues have come back. Kutter Crawford, meanwhile, has regained some of his earlier form. We aren’t exactly comfortable with this bet, but we do have them as the favorite, which is what you need to bet a team at odds this close to even.
Pick: Boston to win +102. Low confidence. (Crawford and Paxton must start.)
