Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 359 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 5% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high), meaning he’s been good enough to consistently make the people money.
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Three picks today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, Spotrac, and ESPN is often used and/or cited.
- The writeups often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. This is because in general, picks are being made because the numbers I’m using indicate the pick is beyond a certain confidence threshold, and I’m not coming across enough red flags to pass on it.
Colorado @ New York (AL)
Germán Márquez’s last start did not go well. He allowed eleven earned runs, and while that total would be bad no matter how long he stayed in the game, he only got eight outs.
The game was at Coors Field, which makes it a bit more understandable, but even if the game were on the moon, eleven runs is a lot.
Thankfully for the Rockies, the driving factor behind Márquez’s respectable 3.92 FIP has been his success on the road. When the Rockies are the visitors, his FIP’s only 3.40. He both strikes out and walks fewer batters, implying he’s understandably more comfortable pitching to contact when he’s at a lower altitude.
Whether that’s causing it or not, the home/road split with Rockies pitchers is very real and worth considering when evaluating the breed. For Márquez today, it’s a positive indicator.
Pick: Colorado +1.5 (+100). Low confidence.
Kansas City @ Cleveland
Shane Bieber’s success in Cleveland has been a big reason they’re in contention. They’ve needed the 24-year-old, because while Trevor Bauer’s eaten innings like he’s CC Sabathia, the rest of the rotation—Mike Clevinger, Carlos Carrasco, Corey Kluber—has missed significant time.
Zach Plesac, today’s starter, has the fourth-most starts for the Indians this year, and while his 3.56 ERA is admirable, it comes with a concerning 5.50 FIP.
It’s possible the small-ish sample size (48 innings) is causing some statistical noise, but when predicting a pitcher’s performance, FIP is more useful than ERA, no matter the sample.
Pick: Kansas City +1.5 (+100). Low confidence.
Miami @ Los Angeles
The first six starts of Jordan Yamamoto’s career have been sensational for Miami. 34 innings, a 1.59 ERA, and a 2.90 FIP to back it up. Yamamoto strikes out a batter per inning, and while he’s walked more batters than the Marlins would prefer (one every other inning), he has yet to allow a home run.
Some of this success will wear off. Everyone allows home runs, especially in 2019. But Yamamoto’s sample is getting to the point where it would take significantly different results in a significant quantity to change it. In other words, even when his innings total is twice this large, at least half the results within it will be very positive.
Pick: Miami +1.5 (+130). Low confidence.
