Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 3,379 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). Our ETA for having the overall number back profitable is currently November 7th, the likeliest date of a World Series Game 7 and the eve of both college basketball season and Election Day.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
NASCAR Cup Series at New Hampshire
Toyotas have performed well on short tracks in the new car, 23XI’s drivers are starting in good positions, and Kurt Busch has—for factors within and without of each man’s control—shown himself more capable of winning than Bubba Wallace has.
Pick: Kurt Busch to win +2000. Low confidence.
IndyCar at Toronto
It’s tempting to go for one of the first three on the grid, but it’s difficult to choose which one, and the odds are short there. We’ll try Rosenqvist again, who looks valuable, and may be valuable until he breaks through (I think there might be a discount on drivers who haven’t won, or drivers like Rosenqvist who’ve only one once and have now gone two years without a win).
Pick: Felix Rosenqvist to win +2000. Low confidence.
