Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,581 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We rely heavily on Nate Silver’s presidential election model for our election futures.
Active markets today: MLB moneylines. MLB futures are off for the weekend, but we’re planning to revisit them on Monday, Tuesday, and potentially more days during the All-Star Break.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’ve tried a similar approach this year. We’re 98–84–2 so far, down 4.57 units. We’ve mostly been treading water lately, but we haven’t been able to sustain making up significant ground.
Kansas City @ Boston
The Royals got Hunter Harvey, and that might not be immediately impactful, because Harvey might not be fully available today, but it’s the kind of thing that probably fires up a team at least a little bit on the ultimate getaway day. We like Brady Singer, and while we do think Brayan Bello will figure it out in the long run, it’s hard to see his big inning issues going away for good anytime soon.
Pick: Kansas City to win +121. Low confidence. (Singer and Bello must start.)
Atlanta @ San Diego
Chris Sale is having a dominant year. Leads the majors in FIP. Third in xERA. Sixth in strikeouts. Second in fWAR. It’s been a renaissance in Atlanta at the age of 35, and it should be too much for the Padres this afternoon.
Pick: Atlanta to win –170. Low confidence. (Sale and Vasquez must start.)
