Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 340 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 6% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high), meaning he’s been good enough to consistently make the people money.
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Two picks today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, Spotrac, and ESPN is often used and/or cited.
- The writeups often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. This is because in general, picks are being made because the numbers I’m using indicate the pick is beyond a certain confidence threshold, and I’m not coming across enough red flags to pass on it.
New York (NL) @ Miami
After a mediocre first few months of the year, the Mets have crumpled, finding themselves solidly in 14th place in the National League.
There are plenty of culprits for this, but the biggest is the bullpen. The Mets have had the fifth-most valuable rotation in baseball (as measured by fWAR), but their relievers have achieved -0.5 fWAR, better than only the Orioles. In 299 innings, the bullpen has a 5.60 ERA, and even the 4.93 FIP doesn’t look hopeful. They’re walking almost a batter every other inning. Their reliever with the most total appearances has a 5.17 ERA.
The Mets are, as they’ve been so often lately, a mess despite great starting pitching. No lead is safe.
Pick: Over 7 (-115). Low confidence.
Atlanta @ San Diego
Mike Soroka keeps trucking along, getting outs and winning ballgames. His ERA’s now at 2.42, with a 3.09 FIP that’s just as encouraging. He’s been far and away the most valuable rookie pitcher in the game, and he’s fourth among all rookies in fWAR.
One of Soroka’s biggest strengths is his ability to avoid home runs. He allows them at the lowest rate of any pitcher with 60 or more innings pitched this year, giving one up just every 23 innings or so.
This is likely to regress. It’s hard to maintain a 7.8% HR/FB ratio. But Soroka ranks in the top three percent of the MLB in limiting “Barrels,” Statcast’s designation for balls more likely than not to become extra base hits, given their launch angle and exit velocity. This ability to limit quality contact is very real, coming in large part from his heavy use of the sinker. Coupled with good command (Soroka walks only 5.8% of hitters—the median among qualified starters is 6.9%), it’s a good recipe. And as part of a pitching staff that borders on shaky, it’s a big reason the Braves are where they are in the standings.
Pick: Under 9 (-110). Medium confidence.
