Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 3,377 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). Our ETA for having the overall number back profitable is currently November 7th, the likeliest date of a World Series Game 7 and the eve of both college basketball season and Election Day.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Formula 1 Austrian Grand Prix
You could’ve given us these odds at -300 and we’d have taken them. Now, we don’t have a great track record on F1 betting, so maybe that’d be dumb, but at -180? On the best driver/car combination in the sport at arguably his best track? This seems like a spot to not overthink things.
Pick: Max Verstappen to win -180. Low confidence.
Quaker State 400 Presented by Walmart (NASCAR Cup Series at Atlanta)
This is also a spot to not overthink things (or so we believe). Just in a different direction.
If Atlanta’s a superspeedway now, which it seems to be, then superspeedway value plays are the way to go, with LaJoie presenting the biggest longshot of a group that includes him, Chris Buescher, and maybe still Michael McDowell but probably not Bubba Wallace anymore, judging by where his odds sit.
The piece to possibly overthink on this is the rain variable in the equation. In a shortened race, someone starting from close to the rear of the field like LaJoie (qualifying was rained out) could be at a disadvantage. Theoretically. But on superspeedways, track position isn’t a very big deal, and wasn’t it a rain-shortened race that helped get Bubba Wallace his win at Talladega last year? We’ll take our shot here and hope Verstappen pays for half of it.
Pick: Corey LaJoie to win +15000. Low confidence.
