Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,581 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,605 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. KenPom is used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
FCS National Championship: South Dakota State vs. North Dakota State
Is this the day South Dakota State finally gets its first national championship?
The Jacks are favored, having won head-to-head earlier this year in Fargo and playing consistently as the better team throughout the year. The last time we saw each, South Dakota State was blowing out a very good Montana State crew, while North Dakota State was struggling against an Incarnate Word squad that didn’t really play defense this season. There are also doubts about Matt Entz, which is odd to say about a coach with a 49-6 career record but stems from just how good the Bison program was when he took it over. It might be easy to look good as the NDSU head coach, but it’s hard to look great.
In the end, we’re going to trust Movelor, which has the line at exactly 5.0, matching the spread, but sees a tiny bit of value on the NDSU moneyline.
Pick: North Dakota State to win +180. Low confidence.
Iowa @ Rutgers
Last year, we disrespected Rutgers. Fairly, I still think, but the point I’m trying to make is that Rutgers has changed, so that part stands. Rutgers is a good, good basketball team, one capable—if they continue to play this well—of contending for a Big Ten title. They’re the league’s third-best team by KenPom and they’ve already split their road games against the two teams ahead of them, with a chance next weekend to get Ohio State back at home. As Jon Rothstein would say: Rutgers. Buy stock now.
Pick: Rutgers -5.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Northwestern @ Indiana
This is a free play for Northwestern, who banked a good win against Illinois this week and comes in with little to lose. It’s a take-care-of-business game for Indiana, who’s 1-2 in Big Ten play but a rather heavy favorite at home. We’ll count on the Hoosiers to take care of that business.
Pick: Indiana -6 (-110). Low confidence.
