Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 777 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 11% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is very good. It’s also good when compared to conventional annual investments, and instead of taking a year to bring that return, it’s taking between three hours and seven months. In short, Joe’s got a good track record.
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Three picks today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from KenPom, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Team Rankings, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Iona @ Monmouth
This line opened at three and has dropped to a pick ‘em. I don’t know why. It’s possible I’m missing an injury here, but only Ray Salnave and Deion Hammond are significant enough contributors to Monmouth to make them worth that large a gap. Monmouth’s a better team than Iona, who turns the ball over a lot and can’t defend the three. There are worse plays you can make today.
Pick: Monmouth to win (-110). Low confidence.
Bucknell @ Lafeyette
Similar story here. Line opened at six, has since dropped to two and a half. No injuries I can find on Twitter, so have to assume Lafayette’s at full strength aside from Isaac Suffren, who hasn’t played in nearly a month and is transferring (Lafayette hasn’t played noticeably poorer in his absence, which has now covered four games).
One thing that’s interesting about this is how bad Bucknell’s gotten. It’s the first year since 2015 that the Bison are below the national median in KenPom, and should be the first since 2014 that they finish outside the Patriot League’s top two. Only one of their starters—Jimmy Sotos—grades out as an above-average offensive player. Their defense is allowing buckets upon buckets. They do have a fairly high continuity of minutes from last year, but Nate Sestina and Kimbal Mackenzie were the dominant forces on that team, and with them gone, Bucknell’s struggling.
It’s possible they’ll right the ship. They beat Army on Thursday to open conference play, and if they get through today, they could easily start the season 4-0 in the Patriot League. Getting through today, though, is unlikely.
Pick: Lafayette -2.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Purdue @ Illinois
Purdue’s résumé to date isn’t much. The eighth-toughest non-conference schedule among Power Six teams, yes (by KenPom’s measure), but only a 7-4 record against that schedule, with a conference loss to Nebraska adding to the damage. The home defeat to Texas is looking worse by the week, and the dominant showing against a Braxton Key-less Virginia doesn’t look so impressive since UVA’s loss to South Carolina.
There’s still a lot to like about this team, though. They rank in the top fifteen on KenPom. They took Florida State to overtime and beat VCU. The Nebraska loss is inexcusable, even with Matt Haarms going down in the second half, but it’s just one data point, and it did come in Lincoln. Purdue’s an excellent defensive team, especially on the perimeter, and is a headache on the offensive glass. They move the ball well, have a pair of very good shooters in Eric Hunter and Sasha Stefanovic, and get solid contributions inside from Haarms and Trevion Williams, the pair of whom will be a great matchup tonight against Kofi Cockburn and Giorgi Bezhanishvili.
Yes, it’s a difficult matchup for the Boilermakers on the road, and yes, things could get very grim from here should they lose, with trips to Michigan and Michigan State sandwiching a visit from Maryland over the next three games. Purdue shouldn’t be a 2.5-point underdog, though. They’re better than that.
Pick: Purdue +2.5 (-110). Low confidence.
