Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 6,708 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use FPI heavily to make NFL futures picks, but not spreads and totals.
Active markets today: Just college basketball. Our NFL futures interests are the Ravens and the 49ers.
Single-day college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 57–54 and we’re down 10.01 units. We’re currently mostly betting moneyline favorites, so our win–loss record doesn’t line up with our net loss.
Xavier @ UConn
We like Xavier a lot. Their kenpom rating is way higher than their win–loss would lead you to believe, their losses have been close lately, and they’ve yet to win the kind of game that makes people notice them. We think they pull off a big one today during the early Sunday start. Or at least, we think it’s likely enough to justify taking a shot.
Pick: Xavier to win +500. Low confidence.
Memphis @ UAB
This could be a very fun one. UAB’s been playing a bit better lately, and Memphis scores like nobody’s business. They also let their opponents score like nobody’s business. This is a high total, but we think a close finish drives the number up.
Pick: Over 158 (–110). Low confidence.
