Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,616 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,605 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. KenPom is used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
Michigan State @ Indiana
Even with just a 1-2 mark in their last three games, Michigan State’s been playing better of late, rising to their best KenPom ranking since November. Indiana is in something of the opposite situation: They’ve won their last two handily, but they’re only 5-6 over their last eleven and that includes two buy games and a visit from Nebraska.
We aren’t convinced that Indiana’s suddenly a powerhouse like their last two games might suggest, but we do believe in water finding its level, and Indiana’s a better team than Michigan State. We expect the standings to land accordingly.
Pick: Indiana -4 (-116). Low confidence.
Maryland @ Purdue
It’s a big number, but four of Purdue’s seven conference wins have come by double digits and Maryland has yet to win a conference road game this season. Had they not drawn Louisville in the Big Ten/ACC Challenge, they’d be winless on the road all year.
Pick: Purdue -10 (-110). Low confidence.
