Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 804 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 9% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is very good. It’s also good when compared to conventional annual investments, and instead of taking a year to bring that return, it’s taking between three hours and seven months. In short, Joe’s got a good track record.
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Two picks for today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from KenPom, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Team Rankings, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Rider at Canisius
The MAAC, depending on your perspective, either has a really fun race going on right now or is a complete mess. Only one team—Marist—is really out of things, and even they’re only three games back of the Monmouth/Quinnipiac/Manhattan triad currently in the lead.
Which goes to say, while Rider and Canisius are both behind where they’d like to be, this isn’t actually do-or-die for either. It’s likely nothing will be do-or-die for a while here.
Pick: Canisius +1.5 (-110). Low confidence.
California at UCLA
Cal hasn’t really played better since Juhwan Harris-Dyson and Jacobi Gordon have been out. But they also haven’t played worse. It’s possible that if both are out for a while, it’ll wash out such that Cal’s been worse for their absence. But with neither a major contributor, for the time being, it seems the loss of bench minutes is being offset by the higher efficiency of those on the court.
Pick: California +8.5 (-110). Low confidence.
