Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 6,679 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use Movelor heavily to make college football picks. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use FPI heavily to make NFL futures picks, but not spreads and totals.
Active markets today: College basketball. We have some NFL futures interests (Cowboys, indirectly the Rams) but we aren’t betting on individual NFL games this weekend after performing so badly over the regular season.
Single-day college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 36–46. We’re down 12.54 units. We’re getting smoked. We’re going to try a little pivot today.
Delaware @ UNC Wilmington
UNC Wilmington should be better than Delaware, based on what we knew going into the season. It looks like they are? Delaware’s been overperforming expectations, and UNC Wilmington has hung around them but hasn’t met the hopes. We’re betting on a little regression here.
Pick: UNC Wilmington to win –240. Low confidence.
Utah @ Stanford
We still don’t believe in Stanford, and while the focus after the Utah/UCLA blowout was deservedly on UCLA, that does illustrate how good this Utah team sometimes is.
Pick: Utah to win –150. Low confidence.
