Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 6,786 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use FPI heavily to make NFL futures picks, but not spreads and totals.
Active markets today: Just college basketball. Still no Super Bowl move(s).
Single-day college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 68–59 and we’re down 8.48 units. We’re currently mostly betting moneyline favorites, so our win–loss record doesn’t line up with our net loss.
Davidson @ Loyola
We’re a little worried about some positive regression for Davidson, a similar quality team to Loyola yet ten spots behind them in A-10 play. Still, Loyola’s been reliable at home for the last two months. We’ll ride with the Ramblers.
Pick: Loyola to win –198. Low confidence.
Providence @ Villanova
The issue here, of course, is that Kyle Neptune is going to get booed. It’s not going to be the home Villanova environment we’d customarily expect. Villanova is not *that* bad, though, and Providence continues to look like they’ve been getting away with things. We don’t love today’s options, but these are the two we can tolerate the most.
Pick: Villanova to win –193. Low confidence.
