Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,695 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,607 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. KenPom is used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
One note, before the basketball: We won’t be placing NASCAR picks for a little while. Not until we either have a model, there’s a superspeedway race, or our all-time return is safely positive overall.
Illinois @ Ohio State
This goes against all sorts of numbers, but…
Ohio State looks done.
They hung in there with Penn State, but before that their last single-digit game was almost three weeks ago, against Northwestern. They’ve been getting wrecked, and Illinois is volatile and the exact type of team you’re scared of in a trap game, but we like the resistible force over the movable object. This time, anyway.
Pick: Illinois -4.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Cincinnati @ Memphis
One thing Memphis has done these last two years, under Penny Hardaway, is play their best basketball down the stretch. Against an unimpressive Cincinnati team, we like the Tigers to make it comfortable.
Pick: Memphis -5.5 (-110). Low confidence.
