Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 6,885 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use our own college basketball model to evaluate college basketball futures.
Active markets today: College basketball and NASCAR. No new college basketball futures. Not until tomorrow.
Single-day college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 102–72–1 and we’re down 2.39 units. We’re currently mostly betting moneyline favorites, so our win–loss record doesn’t line up with our net loss.
NASCAR: We have a terrible track record. We have an all-time deficit of 73.00 units in NASCAR. We have lost over 50% of the units we’ve bet. We’re 0–1 on the year. We don’t do anything other than superspeedways (or the equivalent, which we’ll get to). Not until we win one.
Saint Joseph’s @ VCU
We wish the line on this was more towards VCU—it would make us more comfortable—but everything else aligns with our little system that’s clawed us back from the terrible spot we occupied in January. Here’s hoping we get away with it for another day.
Pick: VCU to win –220. Low confidence.
Minnesota @ Nebraska
This is nearly perfect as well. The issue on it is that Nebraska’s won three straight, which creates an opportunity for a letdown. This late in the season, though, we think we see fewer letdowns.
Pick: Nebraska to win –290. Low confidence.
NASCAR Cup Series at Atlanta
We thought we were going to get a crack with Preece on Monday at Daytona, so we’re going back to him here. He spent most of the day a lap down because he sped on pit road, but he ran at the front of the pack, and we still think he’s a good superspeedway racer who others are sleeping on because he races for SHR, not traditionally a terrible team. (Corey LaJoie gets shorter odds because he’s a known superspeedway specialist, one on whom we almost hit two years ago at Atlanta at 300-to-1. Preece might be a superspeedway specialist, but if he is, the market doesn’t realize it.)
Preece and teammate Noah Gragson did have their roof rail deflectors confiscated by NASCAR on Friday, which could affect how they run today. But the to-be-announced penalties shouldn’t affect the race itself, and the whole deal with superspeedways is that the pack makes it less about the speed of the car, relatively speaking, and more about the ability of the driver to navigate the mayhem. In a crapshoot with 40 options, we’ll take a believable one at 80-to-1.
Pick: Ryan Preece to win +8000. Low confidence.
