Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,679 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,607 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. KenPom is used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
Daytona 500
We really wanted to take a longshot, but after a few huge near-misses last year (remember when we had Corey LaJoie at 150-to-1 at Atlanta?), there aren’t any good odds that are particularly long. There are some, but the payout’s too small. There are 40 cars in this thing, and almost all could believably win it. That makes 35-to-1 average.
We pivot, then, to one of the favorites, Blaney. He’s reliably been a driver in recent seasons who’s been in the mix but not on the front lines. Speaking of seasons as wholes, I mean. He’s been close to breaking through, but never fully there. Between that consistency and his superspeedway prowess, he’s a great bet to be sticking around at the end today, and unlike those with whom we missed nearly last year, he’s shown he can finish.
Not a huge payout, but would put a dent in our deficit, and still comes at a low cost.
Pick: Ryan Blaney to win +1200. Low confidence.
Iowa @ Northwestern
If Northwestern is who we all seem to agree that they are, they should be able to protect their home court and split a season series against a team as flawed as Iowa. The only things that give us pause is that Northwestern might have crested and had such giant victories this week. Do they come down from those?
Pick: Northwestern +1.5 (-109). Low confidence.
Oregon @ Washington State
Washington State’s good enough to be the home favorite here, and they’re good enough to win this game. It would be a really bad weekend for Oregon, and so far this year they’ve avoided getting swept in a weekend set, but we don’t hate Washington State’s chance at making a run back towards .500.
Pick: Washington State -1 (-110). Low confidence.
