Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 6,803 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use FPI heavily to make NFL futures picks, but not spreads and totals.
Active markets today: College basketball. (Our Super Bowl pick came earlier this week—we’re on the Niners.)
Single-day college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 78–65–1 and we’re down 8.11 units. We’re currently mostly betting moneyline favorites, so our win–loss record doesn’t line up with our net loss.
Seton Hall @ Villanova
The problem with Villanova is not that they’re bad. It’s that they aren’t as good as they should be.
Pick: Villanova to win –260. Low confidence.
Penn State @ Northwestern
Minnesota @ Iowa
These are both pretty formulaic, with the one caveat being that Northwestern’s coming off a win. The better team is playing at home. The better team is (in Iowa’s case) coming off a loss. The worse team is coming off a win. The betting markets favor the favorite by a little bit more than kenpom does.
Pick: Parlay – Northwestern & Iowa to win (–140). Low confidence.
