Editor’s Note: For about two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ NLCS comeback, the second two months of last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.8% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,237 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.8% might not be enormous, it’s positive over a big sample size. For what it’s worth.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Bill Connelly’s SP+ is heavily used in making College Football picks. Ken Pomeroy’s KenPom is heavily used in making College Basketball picks.
Grambling State @ Texas Tech
It’s tough to guess whether a game will be a 29-point game or a 32-point game. At that margin, it’s hard to predict. That said, this is one of the best options available on today’s board. Grambling’s competitive in the context of their conference, and played Arizona within 19 nine days ago. Texas Tech plays a slower pace. If you don’t like games with this large of a spread, I don’t blame you, but it’s there if you want it, and there isn’t anything particularly weird about either team that should cast doubt on KenPom’s ability to gauge them.
Pick: Grambling State +32 (-110). Low confidence.
Stetson @ Florida
Again, large margin, and really just trusting KenPom here. But if you’re looking for something to make you feel smart, Stetson shot 35.5% on threes against Miami (the national average is 32.6% right now), and Florida’s allowed opponents to shoot 37.5% from deep. So there’s at least one irresponsibly-small-sample-size matchup stat favoring Stetson.
Pick: Stetson +25 (-110). Low confidence.
Binghamton @ Marist
Ah, the rematch. Yesterday, Marist beat Binghamton in overtime. Don’t put too much stock into that result. Marist is significantly better than Binghamton, and has whatever advantage home court provides. This is probably the best play out there today.
Pick: Marist -6.5 (-110). Low confidence.
