Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,444 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.9% across 1,602 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
We’ll plan on doubling up on World Cup futures again tomorrow, but for today, just college basketball. Here we go:
Miami @ Louisville
Is Louisville worse than Austin Peay? At this point, that’s the question, because using KenPom, the implication of this line is that Louisville is adjacent to Austin Peay in power rating.
Louisville really might be that bad, and there’s also the possibility they’re actively getting worse, something that could throw KenPom for a loop. We like our system for nonconference basketball, though. It’s around .500 this year, it’s been profitable all time, we’re going to keep shooting on the Cardinals. Eventually, they have to find bottom. Right?
Pick: Louisville +11.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Georgia State @ Northeastern
There’s a lot going on here. First: Northeastern’s only won once this year, and it was in overtime. That’s a bad sign, and you could make an argument that the Huskies “don’t know how to win,” but it’s also a product of the fact Northeastern’s declined to schedule out-and-out cupcakes. Second: Georgia State just got two players (Brenden Tucker, Evan Johnson) back after three games out. Third, and this is the important piece: These teams have been two of the most consistent in KenPom over the course of the season. During Tucker and Johnson’s absences, Georgia State didn’t budge. In loss after loss after loss, Northeastern hasn’t budged. KenPom seems to have a great hold on these teams. We aren’t going to argue.
Pick: Northeastern +3.5 (-110). Low confidence.
