Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.8% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 6,142 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,249 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use Movelor heavily to make college football picks. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use FPI heavily to make NFL futures picks, but not spreads and totals.
We’re trying to get back on track on college basketball, and we’ve got an NFL pick, and we’re going to put a few units onto college football futures, but those are mostly a hedge. Here’s the context on each market.
Single-game college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 17–12. We’re up 3.36 units and we’re up 12%.
Single-game NFL bets: On the season, we’re 14–21–7. Only trailing by a touchdown. We’re down 8.48 units and we’re down 20%.
College football futures: We started the season with 300 units in our college football futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 200 of those over the season’s fifteen weeks and keep 100 in reserve for hedging and arbitrage opportunities. We’re down about 5 units so far, with more losses coming today during the CFP selection show (our bets on who will and won’t make the playoff are poised to lose). We have upside remaining on Alabama and Washington, with some limited Michigan downside. We have upside remaining at the FCS level as well.
Auburn @ Appalachian State
Our free throw strategy continues, and today it breaks against an Auburn team who hasn’t been great from the stripe. They’ve been close to the Division I average, but that’s below-average for power conferences. (I’m pretty sure. This is at least true of the SEC, but we’re running out of time so I’m gonna let it fly.)
Pick: Appalachian State +7.5 (–113). Low confidence.
Detroit @ New Orleans
Not a lot behind this one other than that we think the Lions are still a good team and will bounce back from these last two weeks, two weeks in which they’ve played close to their worst football and still gone 1–1.
Pick: Detroit –4 (–110). Low confidence.
College Football Playoff (Hedge)
16 units on this one, which is a very imprecise hedge. We have so much to gain from Alabama making the playoff that we think this is the right size for our optimal portfolio, but this was a hurried move, so apologies in advance if it doesn’t turn out well. We only recommend this to those dutifully following our college football futures portfolio.
Pick: Alabama to miss playoff –115. Low confidence. x16
