Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 757 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 11% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is very good. It’s also good when compared to conventional annual investments, and instead of taking a year to bring that return, it’s taking between three hours and seven months. In short, Joe’s got a good track record.
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Two picks for today, both in the early afternoon.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from KenPom, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Team Rankings, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
William & Mary vs. St. Francis (PA)
It’s possible William & Mary is getting a boost in this one from the game happening in D.C., so close to Williamsburg. And while that might be legitimate (one would imagine there are quite a few William & Mary alumni in Washington), William & Mary isn’t exactly a program that inspires a hometown level of turnout away from home. Even if they did, this line would be pushing it.
Pick: St. Francis (PA) to win (+130). Low confidence.
Cornell @ Hartford
Cornell is better than their 1-8 record indicates. They aren’t good, but they’re a better team than Hartford, who’s notched five wins against a pair of Non-Division I programs and three teams on the wrong side of 300 in KenPom’s rankings.
Still, with the game at Hartford, the Big Red should probably be a slight underdog, rather than a slight favorite.
Pick: Hartford to win (+115). Low confidence.
