Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1.5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,502 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.9% across 1,605 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
No new World Cup action today—we’re happy to let our two units on Argentina ride, and our upside scenario isn’t meaningfully higher if we place more down on them. We don’t see much value in the market, either, so it’d be an entertainment bet, which we do privately than list here. Just college hoops, then:
Merrimack @ Bucknell
Merrimack has really fallen since winning the NEC a few years ago, and I’m curious what that was. Did recruiting dry up after the transition to Division I because of the postseason not being an option for a few years? Did the teams just get worse? The former seems far-fetched, but it’s believable enough to wonder. Either way, Bucknell’s better, and by enough.
Pick: Bucknell -8 (-110). Low confidence.
Notre Dame vs. Georgia
Notre Dame is quietly a mess. They have that solid win over Michigan State but nothing else positive to point to, and losses to St. Bonaventure and Syracuse that are much worse than they’d be in normal years for those programs. In Atlanta, Georgia should give them a game. But only if Notre Dame reciprocates.
Pick: Georgia +3.5 (-115). Low confidence.
