Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 6,230 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.3% across 2,266 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks these days are mostly in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use Movelor heavily to make college football picks. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use FPI heavily to make NFL futures picks, but not spreads and totals.
We’ve got college basketball and we’ve got the NFL. We’re taking the day off from college football futures but will resume them tomorrow. Here’s the context on each market for us.
Single-game college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 21–22. We’re down 3.03 units, and we’re 1–9 over our last ten. We are, however, 1–0 over our last one.
Single-game NFL bets: On the season, we’re 17–24–8, and we’re down 8.76 units. Gonna need a strong finish to the year.
Washington @ Seattle
This is a cool game. It’s a fun one. Unrelatedly, Seattle’s getting credit as the home team in the kenpom line, and the kenpom line is also four. While Climate Pledge Arena is technically a home arena for Seattle, they play most of their home games on campus. I don’t think this is going to be an anti-Huskies crowd.
Pick: Washington –4 (–113). Low confidence.
Atlanta @ Carolina
We went back and forth on this one, because it’s so easy to see the Panthers beating these Falcons. In the end, though, we see the game either being a comfortable enough Falcons win or an outright Panthers upset. We don’t really see the Panthers losing this one close.
Pick: Atlanta –2.5 (–112). Low confidence.
