Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 737 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 11% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is very good. It’s also good when compared to conventional annual investments, and instead of taking a year to bring that return, it’s taking between three hours and seven months. In short, Joe’s got a good track record.
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Three picks today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from KenPom, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Team Rankings, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Sacred Heart @ UCF
Sacred Heart is in the top 30 right now in KenPom’s adjusted tempo. Yet on the offensive side, in average possession length, they’re not quite in the top quartile (they’re the 103rd-fastest, only). Their tempo, then, is coming from their defense. Theoretically, teams have more control over offensive tempo than defensive tempo, but Sacred Heart demonstrated a similar split last year, and looking through their opponents to date, they don’t appear to have played an unconventionally up-tempo schedule, implying this really is something driven by Sacred Heart’s defensive scheme.
Still, even taking the Pioneers’ tempo for exactly what it is, this total projects to land on the low side of the current line. UCF is strong defensively (relative to the whole of Division I, though not the AAC) and is specifically good at forcing turnovers, something that Sacred Heart has yielded frequently this year. Look for each team to grab second chances, but for Sacred Heart to be too sloppy to do their part in hitting the over.
Pick: Under 153.5 (-110). Low confidence.
UC-Riverside @ Washington State
First off, fans of The Barking Crow may recognize that UC-Riverside is Joe Kelly’s alma mater. In case you didn’t, wanted to point that out, for fear of NIT Stu’s wrath.
On basketball matters, though:
UC-Riverside is a fascinating case. Last year, in David Patrick’s first as head coach, the Highlanders finished the season 289th in adjusted offensive efficiency, 331st in adjusted defensive efficiency, and 322nd overall. This year, the offense is still 289th. The defense, though, is 140th, a development that’s pushed UCR up to 220th overall and helped them do things like beat Nebraska by 19 on the road.
Patrick has his team playing a brand of basketball some of you might recognize from analyses of what makes certain mid or low-majors more likely to pull off upsets. They play extremely slowly. They attempt a lot of three’s. Statistically speaking, they’re heightening the impact of randomness through high risk-high reward shooting (though they are, relatively speaking, better shooters from distance) and a decreased possession count—i.e., a smaller sample size in individual games.
They’re doing something else, too, though: that defense.
UC-Riverside hasn’t played a very tough schedule to this point. In fact, their nonconference strength of schedule is the 12th-weakest in the country, by KenPom’s count. KenPom knows this, though, and still says their defense is better than the median. So what’s that defense doing?
It isn’t forcing turnovers. UCR’s 14.9% turnover rate is the 10th-lowest in the country, even against such a weak set of foes.
It isn’t avoiding fouls. UCR sends opponents to the line at a relatively conventional pace, though slightly on the more violent side.
It isn’t blocking shots—very little of that is going on.
It’s everything else, with a stylistic element baked in. UCR has the 11th-best defensive effective field goal percentage in the country. They allow offensive rebounds at the 6th-lowest rate. They’re strong defending three’s. They’re strong defending two’s. They’ve gotten lucky in terms of opponent free throw percentage, but it’s also possible that’s somewhat by design, since they allow three-point attempts at one of the lowest rates in the country, implying they’re doing most of their fouling inside the arc, presumably against big men.
Washington State will be an interesting test. The Cougars are the best team UC-Riverside’s played (though not significantly better than Nebraska, Cal Baptist, or Pacific). They’re woeful shooting the ball, but their low assist rate implies there’s a lot of creation going on off the dribble, something UC-Riverside hasn’t seen a lot of. More likely than not, they’ll post the second-highest score the Highlanders have allowed on the year (currently, Cal Baptist holds the high mark with 79, and Sacramento State’s second-highest at just 62), but even that shouldn’t be enough to push this total much past 130.
Pick: Under 133 (-110). Low confidence.
Samford @ Hawaii
It’s unclear what’s got this line as wide as it is. Each team’s playing on seven days of rest. Samford’s coming off one of their better performances of late, Hawaii off one of their worse showings. There’s no information circulating on Twitter about injuries or suspensions or transfers for Samford.
Occam’s razor would say bettors are just wrong (a more complex explanation would say it’s an intentional wrong-ness, designed to do just what it’s doing and inflate the line), but whatever the case, the line looks to be about four points further in Hawaii’s direction than it should be. Yes, the Rainbow Warriors are the home team here, but the two are virtually equal in terms of quality. Seven points of home-court advantage is more than two beyond what even Colorado demonstrates, higher than five thousand feet above sea level.
It’s possible there’s information influencing the line that isn’t available to the public. It’s more likely the line is wrong right now.
Pick: Samford +7 (-110). Low confidence.
