Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,500 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.6% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
The odds for the future come from Bovada because there’s no consistently current/accurate Vegas consensus online. First, though:
Anaheim @ Los Angeles
You can respect Reid Detmers as a prospect and still think the Dodgers should take care of him today rather easily. Of note: While Kenley Jansen, Brusdar Graterol, and Phil Bickford are all likely unavailable; Blake Treinen, Joe Kelly, and Alex Vesia should all be good to go.
Pick: Los Angeles -1.5 (-150). Low confidence.
World Series
There are better plays out there in the futures market today (Yankees and Phillies division championships, specifically), but for our portfolio, this makes the most sense, given we’re already rather heavily into those mentioned in the parenthetical and we’re far enough out from the World Series that continuing to pile into one specific team is an easy place from which to adjust over these next eleven or twelve weeks.
Pick: New York (AL) +1600. Low confidence.
