Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 3,388 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). Our ETA for having the overall number back profitable is currently November 7th, the likeliest date of a World Series Game 7 and the eve of both college basketball season and Election Day.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer picks.
Big Machine Music City Grand Prix (IndyCar Nashville Street Race)
Grosjean’s been quiet lately, but there was also a big gap in the schedule and two of the races were on an oval, which is hard to cast as directly translating to something like Nashville. He’s got great track position today, starting second, and he’s been competitive on the year. We’ll see if this season’s Nashville race is anywhere near as chaotic as last year’s. If it isn’t, or maybe even if it is, he should have a great shot to get his first IndyCar win.
Pick: Romain Grosjean to win +800. Low confidence.
FireKeepers Casino 400 (NASCAR Cup Series at Michigan)
One way to look at the odds here is to ask whether Wallace is really only the sixth-likeliest winner. He’s starting on the pole, and while that doesn’t mean as much at Michigan as it might on a short track or a road course with this car, it does mean he has a good car. He’s also a driver who needs to win to make the playoffs, so there’s going to be no racing for stage points or anything else but trying to win. Wallace has been a bit snakebit this year, and with some of the pit crew stuff, it’s fair to think of that as a legitimate trend. Still, he looks like a good play today.
Pick: Bubba Wallace to win +1000. Low confidence.
