Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2.0% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,633 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.6% across 2,293 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We rely heavily on Nate Silver’s presidential election model for our election futures.
Active markets today: MLB moneylines and election futures.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’ve tried a similar approach this year. We’re 111–98–3 so far, down an even 10.00 units. We’ve gotten within reach of profitability a few times, but we haven’t been able to sustain a surge.
Kansas City @ Detroit
Bad, bad day for the Royals yesterday. Lead blown. Win streak broken. Bobby Witt Jr. hit streak broken. Second place yielded to the Twins. The only way it could have been worse is if someone got hurt, or if the Tigers wore their City Connects and the Royals had to look at them all day.
We’re still Royals believers, or at least Tigers apostates. Both teams burned a lot of bullpen yesterday. This might be mean, but I don’t see any reason to be excited about Brant Hurter (bulk reliever today, making his MLB debut, 4.40 FIP in Triple-A, 20th-best Detroit prospect per FanGraphs). Michael Wacha is a professional pitcher, someone fair to trust to eat those six innings and shorten the game. The Royals are playing a good lineup and have better bats available off the bench when righties come to the hill. Four-game sweeps are hard, but last night’s collapse doesn’t mean the Royals aren’t going to win this series.
Pick: Kansas City to win –137. Low confidence. (Wacha and Faedo must start.)
Tampa Bay @ Houston
Rays bulk reliever Tyler Alexander has had a wild year. At one point, he started a game with six perfect innings against the Blue Jays. He’s probably undervalued—his xERA and FIP are better than his ERA, and in an extremely small post-IL sample he’s struck out seven, walked none, and allowed one home run—and the Astros shouldn’t have too much tape on opener Hunter Bigge, a rookie who came over from the Cubs in the Isaac Paredes deal. Spencer Arrighetti’s been competent, though, and especially competent lately as his BABIP’s regressed to something reasonable. He’s a meltdown risk, but when he keeps it together for a few innings, he generally gets through five or six just fine. With the best part of the Houston bullpen rested, that should be enough today. The value in theory isn’t what we generally like, but this is a game Houston should win, and that counts for something, especially this time of year.
Pick: Houston to win –154. Low confidence. (Bigge and Arrighetti must start.)
Boston @ Texas
I’m not sure Nathan Eovaldi’s a significantly better pitcher than Nick Pivetta, but I really don’t like a bullpen that saw all of Kirby Yates, David Robertson, Josh Sborz, Andrew Chafin, and José Leclerc pitch across multiple innings yesterday. The Rangers used them well—they got the win—but that unit is spent, and you do not want a spent bullpen pitching against the Red Sox offense.
Pick: Boston to win +109. Low confidence. (Pivetta and Eovaldi must start.)
