Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 404 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 7% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is pretty good. It would be a decent annual ROI for an investor. But instead it’s coming, on average, on each of these picks.
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Five picks today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, Spotrac, and ESPN is often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. You are not required to read these. This is because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Miami @ Tampa Bay
The Marlins will, theoretically, eventually be hoping to contend.
There’s a good chance Caleb Smith will be part of those plans.
Smith’s been mentioned here before, but he’s worth paying attention to. While his 4.06 FIP indicates his 3.43 ERA may regress in a negative direction, even a 4.06 ERA wouldn’t be too shabby for a pitcher in his first full season.
Pick: Miami +1.5 (-125). Low confidence.
Kansas City @ Minnesota
Jake Odorizzi’s start was pushed back from today to (probably) tomorrow, and while it doesn’t sound like it’s because of an injury, it’s something to keep an eye on. The Twins’ rotation is, as a unit, very solid (eighth in the MLB in fWAR), but beyond the front five, there aren’t a lot of promising options.
Pick: Kansas City +1.5 (-115). Low confidence.
Seattle @ Houston
Justin Verlander is at it again, with a 2.73 ERA. His FIP of 3.73, plus his 90.0% rate of stranding runners, indicates this level of success isn’t sustainable, but that doesn’t mean Verlander isn’t still a good pitcher. A 3.73 FIP is good at any age, but especially for a 36-year-old.
Instead, the takeaway should be that while Verlander is very good, he probably isn’t a Cy Young-caliber pitcher. The Astros will certainly feel comfortable, and even confident, sending him to the mound in October, and justifiably so. But he isn’t Max Scherzer.
Pick: Seattle +1.5 (+165). Low confidence.
San Francisco @ Colorado
Since the beginning of July, the Giants have scored the sixth-most runs in the MLB. Mike Yastrzemski’s breakout has been a big part of that.
Yastrzemski, a 28-year-old rookie, has been raking. His wRC+ on the season is 112, which is already good, but since July 1st it’s 136. One of the best in the NL West.
He’s certainly benefitted from some good luck. His BABIP on the season is .328, which is above the roughly .300 league average, and his XBA is .026 poorer than his real batting average. But his ability to hit for power (.199 XISO), while possibly lower than it currently appears (.233 ISO), is very real.
Pick: Over 13.5 (-105). Low confidence.
San Diego @ Los Angeles
Fernando Tatís Jr. just keeps doing it. His wRC+ is now 153. He’s been worth 3.8 fWAR. That’s now 17th in the MLB, and Tatís has only 329 plate appearances, compared to 526 for Mookie Betts, the player immediately above him on the list.
The Padres have something very, very special.
Pick: San Diego to win (+152). Low confidence.
