Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,515 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.6% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Chicago (NL) @ Chicago (AL)
Kyle Hendricks might be near the league lead in wins, but by his standards, it’s been an awful year. He has his worst career FIP by nearly a full run. He has his worst career xERA by nearly a full run. He has his worst career ERA, his worst strikeout rate since his 13-start debut in 2014, and his worst home run rate. He might figure it out, but at the moment, he’s making projection systems—which have long doubted him—look smart.
Pick: Chicago (AL) -1.5 (-120). Low confidence.
Colorado @ Los Angeles
The fact Mitch White is making his third start of the year today speaks to the Dodgers’ difficulty keeping their rotation intact. The fact Mitch White’s got a 3.78 xERA and 3.93 FIP despite grading out as a 35+ FV prospect speaks to the Dodgers’ ability to get production from just about anyone. Antonio Senzatela’s good, but with a fairly well-stocked bullpen behind him, White should do enough to get Los Angeles a comfortable win this afternoon.
Pick: Los Angeles -1.5 (-130). Low confidence.
