Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2.0% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,695 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.6% across 2,293 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We rely heavily on Nate Silver’s presidential election model for our election futures.
Active markets today: MLB moneylines. Everything else is off today.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’re 145–123–3 so far this year, down 7.01 units. Over the last 17 days, we’ve been trying a different collection of approaches. So far, that effort is 31–20, up 5.79 units. We’re making progress, but there’s a long way to go.
Arizona @ Boston
If we were still doing just one Heat Index pick, the Yankees losing yesterday would be a bigger deal to us. Heat Index now sees Diamondbacks/Red Sox as the game with the biggest hot/cold gap on today’s board.
But, we’re doing two Heat Index picks now. The Yankees will be the next one.
Heat Index is 14–3 overall, up 4.79 units. As we measure it (wRC+ and FIP– over the last three weeks), the Diamondbacks are the hottest team in baseball, even through the injuries.
Pick: Arizona to win +113. Low confidence. (Kelly and Houck must start.)
Colorado @ New York (AL)
Heat Index 2 is young. This is only its third attempt. It’s 2–0 so far, though, and this is one of those picks where we’re just trying to make our layups. The Yankees are going for a series win against the Rockies. That’s a high-probability play.
Pick: New York (AL) to win –230. Low confidence. (Gomber and Stroman must start.)
Texas @ Cleveland
Our underdogs are now 6–11, down 3.54 units over the sample. With yesterday’s loss, the run differential dropped to even.
So, we’re again putting the underdogs on the bubble. If this one doesn’t win, we’ll run some numbers on the run differential and decide whether to keep going. Options if we ax this approach include going back to Smallest Favorite for a little bit, opening up Heat Index 3 (that’d be the Cubs today, mostly because the Marlins are so cold), or switching to two picks a day. Ideally, we win by ten runs and get to keep picking underdogs.
Our approach really likes how Cody Bradford’s pitched this year in his small sample. It also doesn’t consider Cleveland’s home/road splits. Maybe that’s smart, maybe it’s dumb, but this is how we find out.
Pick: Texas to win +114. Low confidence. (Bradford and Boyd must start.)
