Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 467 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 5% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is pretty good. It would be a decent annual ROI for an investor. But instead it’s coming, on average, on each of these picks.
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Four picks today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, Spotrac, Sagarin, Massey Ratings, and ESPN is often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. You are not required to read these. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Kansas City @ Cleveland
Shane Bieber has been giving up a lot of home runs lately: two each in his last three starts, and one each in the two before that. But the damage hasn’t been significant: only twelve runs allowed over those five starts in total, ten of them earned.
Bieber’s recent home run binge seems more an oddity than anything. His 16.8% HR/FB ratio is the 18th-highest of the 68 qualified pitchers—not extremely home run-susceptible. And while the home runs have continued, so have the strikeouts. Bieber’s 41 in those five starts have slightly increased his pace, bringing him to 207 K’s in total—tied for fifth-highest in the MLB.
Are the home runs concerning? Not really. Are the strikeouts still encouraging? Yes.
Pick: Under 9 (-110). Low confidence.
Philadelphia @ Miami
Rhys Hoskins was a sensation when he came into the league in 2017, bashing 18 long balls in 212 plate appearances—roughly a 54 -home run pace. And while he hasn’t matched that prodigious output since, he still seems a bit unnoticed. His 126 wRC+ across 2018 and 2019 is 28th-highest of the 127 qualifying hitters.
Pick: Over 8 (-110). Low confidence.
Colorado @ St. Louis
The Cardinals have a very real chance of winning the National League Central. This isn’t new, but they’re in the best spot they’ve been in all year entering today, with even FanGraphs—which is fairly bullish on the Cubs relative to the market—giving them a 41.5% chance of earning a ticket straight to the NLDS.
But they still have their flaws, and at the back end of the rotation, those flaws are particularly glaring. Michael Wacha has, by fWAR, been the worst of any pitcher with 90 or more innings (caveat: he’s tied with Glenn Sparkman and Wade LeBlanc for this distinction). His 5.22 ERA is bad alone, but even worse when accompanied by a 5.80 FIP. A disproportionate quantity of his troubles are home runs, but when a pitcher has an xSLG in the lowest ten percent of baseball, home runs are expected.
This shouldn’t affect the Cardinals come October. Unless it forces them into the wild card game, or out of the playoffs altogether.
Pick: Colorado to win (+165). Low confidence.
Boston @ San Diego
It’s about time to plant the tombstone on the 2019 Boston Red Sox, and for all the issues—bullpen collapses, injuries to starting pitchers, etc.—one that hasn’t been discussed much is Jackie Bradley Jr.’s bad year.
After posting 5.3 fWAR in a breakout 2016, Bradley managed a combined 4.9 over the past two seasons. So far, though, he’s only at 0.9 on the year.
Some of this is offensive—his wRC+ is 86, his lowest since 2014. But that’s not much worse than the 89 and 90 he posted in ’17 and ’18. Surprisingly, a lot of the trouble seems to be coming from his defense, as FanGraphs has his UZR/150 at -3.1 on the year.
One season is a small sample size in defensive metrics, and all defensive metrics should be taken with a grain of salt (they just aren’t that well developed yet). But it’s worth keeping an eye on going forward, because without the dominant glove in the outfield, Bradley’s mediocre bat won’t play.
Pick: San Diego to win (-115). Low confidence.
