Editor’s Note: For almost two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of greatness (the Nationals winning the World Series last year, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the second two months of last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 983 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 6% might not be a great annual return on overall investments, if you strategize well with timing, you can turn daily 6%’s into a whole lot more than 6% over the course of a year.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Data and predictions from FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Data from Baseball Savant and ESPN is also often used.
Running it back after yesterday. Not intentionally, but I suppose it makes sense—undervalued teams stay undervalued for a bit.
Miami @ Washington
Last year, Aníbal Sánchez was a crucial piece of the Nationals’ title run. He was not one of the three aces Washington rode to the top, but he did contribute 2.5 necessary fWAR over the regular season, and his dominance over the Cardinals to open the NLCS played a big part in getting the aces much-needed rest after a wild Division Series.
This year, things aren’t going so well. Sánchez’s 8.50 ERA is unsightly, and while his 6.88 FIP is better, it’s still quite bad. He likely won’t end the season with this bad of numbers, but with a projected FIP in the 5’s the rest of the way, he also isn’t likely to make a huge improvement.
Pick: Miami +1.5 (-150). Low confidence.
Cincinnati @ St. Louis
This was supposed to be a big year for the Reds. After a noteworthy offseason, they were the division favorite, according to some. Nearly halfway through the year, they have yet to reward that faith, waking up today three games below .500 and a game and a half out of a playoff field that includes more than half the league.
The offense, so far, has been what’s lacking. Even having added Mike Moustakas and Nicholas Castellanos, Cincinnati’s 20th in baseball in wRC+. Eugenio Suárez is batting .145. Shogo Akiyama has a 61 wRC+. Josh VanMeter has managed to post -0.3 fWAR in just 38 plate appearances.
The Reds might turn it around. It could happen any day. But the lineup, even with Castellanos and Moustakas, isn’t foolproof, and it’s running out of time.
Pick: St. Louis +1.5 (-170). Low confidence.
Colorado @ Los Angeles
Antonio Senzatela’s 6.71 ERA last year was brutal, a combination of poor performance (a 5.44 FIP) and bad luck (a .333 BABIP). This year, though, he’s shown flashes of brilliance, most notably on Tuesday when he held the Astros scoreless over eight innings.
Senzatela should be expected to regress. His 2.90 ERA and 3.03 FIP are not things he should be expected to do long-term. But even when he does regress, his true ability likely lies somewhere between last year’s numbers and this year’s.
Pick: Colorado +1.5 (-105). Low confidence.
