Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,488 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.6% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
For the future today, due to the absence of a current/accurate Vegas consensus, we’re using odds from Bovada. For the other, the consensus.
Kansas City @ Toronto
Low return, so low confidence, but with how much Brad Keller has struggled the Blue Jays should be safe, even if their catchers aren’t fully up to speed on José Berríos yet.
Pick: Toronto to win -280. Low confidence.
ALCS
As of this morning, the Yankees are more than 50% likely to make the playoffs, per FanGraphs’s playoff odds. If they get there, they’ll be formidable, making these rather charitable odds.
Pick: New York (AL) to win +1000. Low confidence.
