Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2.0% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,672 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.6% across 2,293 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We rely heavily on Nate Silver’s presidential election model for our election futures.
Active markets today: Single-game MLB bets.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’re 133–114–3 so far this year, down 7.28 units. We’re trying three new approaches, something we started last Thursday. So far, that effort is 19–11, up 5.59 units. It’s still a small sample, but it’s been a nice week and a half.
Chicago (AL) @ Houston
Heat Index still narrowly favors the Astros rather than the higher-payout option of the Padres, and we’ll ride with our metric. It’s now 8–2, up 3.16 units.
Pick: Houston to win –338. Low confidence. (Bush and Valdez must start.)
Kansas City @ Cincinnati
The smallest favorite lost yesterday but is still 7–3 over our time using it. That’s a small sample and we’re very skeptical about our own logic here, but it’s made us 3.49 units so far.
Pick: Cincinnati to win –105. Low confidence. (Singer and Abbott must start.)
Washington @ Philadelphia
Yet again, our underdog approach pumped out a winner just in time to save itself from getting the ax. This is 4–6 and down 1.06 units, but its run differential is now +7.
Pick: Washington to win +141. Low confidence. (Irvin and Walker must start.)
