Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,823 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,618 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FiveThirtyEight’s models are heavily used in making NBA and soccer futures picks. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Just two markets today—we don’t do MLB futures on regular season weekends.
On single game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 11–6, we’re up 4.51 units, we’re up 27% (the average line on our winners has been -105). That 27% number is unlikely to be sustained, but it’s been a nice few weeks.
For the NBA future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NBA futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 69 days (if there’s an NBA Finals Game 7). With many payouts coming before the end of the postseason, this will hopefully leave us with at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 0.29 units so far.
Philadelphia @ Cincinnati
Sundays are tough. We do like Aaron Nola to bounce back, though—his numbers suggest bad luck—and we don’t like Luis Cessa to bounce back. The Phillies used a lot of bullpen yesterday, but not a lot of their best guys. Every Sunday bet feels like trying to steal something, but we do these daily, and we saw a lot of opportunity on Sundays in our testing last year when we were willing to white-knuckle it.
Pick: Philadelphia to win -186. Low confidence. (Nola and Cessa must start.)
First Round: Milwaukee vs. Miami
We don’t love this, which makes us like it, because consensus can sometimes go too far.
There’s no reasonable route for the Bucks to be eliminated in the first round. They’re too good, they’re at full health, Miami’s limping in a little bit, these kinds of things just don’t happen in the NBA. The last time an 8-seed upset a 1-seed was 2011, and if the data I’m seeing at Sports Odds History is correct, those Grizzlies were only at +280 to take down those Spurs.
Still, there is a route to the upset, and this price has gotten too long. We’ll ride with Jimmy Butler for now and see where he takes us.
Pick: Miami to win +750. Low confidence.
