Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,291 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action.
Active markets today: Major League Baseball moneylines. Futures will return on Monday (and we’re hoping to do NBA futures again, but we need to decide how to go about that).
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’re trying the same approach this year. We’re 8–13 so far, down 5.28 units. It’s been a bad start, but we did have a nice mid-April run last year, so we’re hoping to turn it around quickly. One difference: We only did one bet a day last year. This weekend, we’ve been doing multiple per day, to diversify our approach a little bit.
San Francisco @ Tampa Bay
Tyler Alexander, the Rays’ planned bulk reliever, hasn’t been great so far this year, but that’s the only red flag here. Blake Snell isn’t fully stretched out yet, and it’s an early start for a Giants team coming off a big win yesterday.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win +100. Low confidence. (Snell and Armstrong must start.)
St. Louis @ Arizona
We don’t love that the Diamondbacks won yesterday—we found some evidence in 2022 that Saturday losers are undervalued on Sundays—but Zac Gallen is a bargain at this price.
Pick: Arizona to win –140. Low confidence. (Mikolas and Gallen must start.)
Chicago (NL) @ Seattle
Similarly, we’re happy buying a little low on Luis Castillo. We like Javier Assad a lot as fans, but we don’t know that he’s necessarily breaking through.
Pick: Seattle to win –137. Low confidence. (Assad and Castillo must start.)
San Diego @ Los Angeles
And in the Sunday Night game, we aren’t sure we should trust James Paxton just yet. He was solid last year in Boston, but his walk numbers are concerning so far and he’s benefited from a great BABIP.
Pick: San Diego to win +131. Low confidence. (Darvish and Paxton must start.)
