Our “spot”-based approach is now 72–50 against average odds of –115. Six moneylines today as we try to capitalize on what seems to be going well.
Detroit at Philadelphia
Tarik Skubal is unbelievably good. Zack Wheeler is close to that. If the season started today, we wouldn’t talk about the Tigers as a World Series contender. We would talk about the Phillies. The Phillies are the home team in this one.
Pick: Philadelphia to win +103. 2.01 units to win 2.07. Skubal and Wheeler must start.
Houston at Boston
Up in Boston, Walker Buehler hasn’t been consistent enough with his good outings to trust him as much as these odds trust him. Also, while Jeremy Peña did leave his first game back and while the Astros are notorious bunglers of injuries, Peña left with hamstring cramps when his original injury was a broken rib. He’s probably fine.
Pick: Houston to win –101. 2.10 units to win 2.08. Gordon and Buehler must start.
Texas at Seattle
There’s a lot of excitement around Merrill Kelly joining the Rangers, and justifiably so. But to ask him to make Texas a near-favorite is a lot, especially when Luis Castillo’s tear is now up to six starts.
Pick: Seattle to win –115. 2.39 units to win 2.08. Kelly and Castillo must start.
New York (AL) at Miami
It’s wild to see the Marlins as this narrow of an underdog against the Yankees. But, the Marlins keep winning, and they didn’t sell that hard, and Eury Pérez is a whole lot better than Cam Schlittler. There’s a value reward for getting past the gut reaction here.
Pick: Miami to win +104. 2.00 units to win 2.08. Schlittler and Pérez must start.
Arizona at Sacramento
Here, too. Zac Gallen can be expected to be a professional, but the Diamondbacks are really gutted, and J.T. Ginn’s shown encouraging flashes on an A’s team that’s won a few games lately.
Pick: Sacramento to win –108. 2.24 units to win 2.07. Gallen and Ginn must start.
Chicago (AL) at Anaheim
The White Sox are 9–4 since the break and Aaron Civale seems to have finally settled into form. The Angels, though, keep bouncing back, partly because Kyle Hendricks is having a much better year than expected, and a better year than his ERA implies.
Pick: Anaheim to win –145. 3.01 units to win 2.08. Civale and Hendricks must start.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –479.83 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –8% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 539 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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