A 5–1 day yesterday (we count the Dodgers win as a win even though the bet pushed because of the opener) leaves us 14–10 on our somewhat deterministic “spot” approach, in which we look for teams with unusually advantageous setups in a particular game. That’s a .583 win percentage, and it’s come against average odds of –121. Not rounding, that implies a 6.38% return.
Is this sustainable? Over the long run, no. Nothing really lasts these days in sports betting markets, especially those of the single-game variety. But over the short run, it’s believable. Plenty of times, we’ve had something like a 6% advantage on a market for a short stretch of time.
Why does this matter? Because as we calculate our Kelly criterion, we’ve been basing “p,” the probability of winning a given game, off our expected return. Today, it jumps from 1% to 6%. In Major League Baseball, Tuesdays are uniquely advantageous (as are Sundays, though those are higher-risk), but we’re sticking with treating all days the same for now. The real difference is we’ll probably pick more games on Tuesdays (and possibly Sundays as well, though again…that’s risky).
Pittsburgh at Milwaukee
I promise, we respect Jacob Misiorowski, whose strikeout numbers should actually improve from here.
But Paul Skenes is the better pitcher, and the Brewers aren’t better enough than the Pirates to make them the favorite here. Even at Amway Field.
Pick: Pittsburgh to win –104. 7.17 units to win 6.89. Skenes and Misiorowski must start.
Sacramento at Detroit
Jacob Lopez has quietly pitched well this year, with a 4.36 FIP and a 3.69 xERA. Jack Flaherty has made last year look like an aberration, returning to his 4.00+ ways in all three of ERA/xERA/FIP. That doesn’t mean Flaherty’s bad, but after an exhausting game last night, we think markets should be warier of a guy with significant injury history who’s walked eight and allowed four home runs over his last two starts, two starts which lasted a combined seven innings.
Pick: Sacramento to win +157. 4.39 to win 6.89. Lopez and Flaherty must start.
Philadelphia at Houston
We think Colton Gordon’s undervalued, but the Phillies are good and Zack Wheeler’s an ace’s ace. They should take care of business here after getting (in our opinion) a little unlucky last night with their hitting with runners on base.
Pick: Philadelphia to win –152. 10.47 units to win 6.89. Wheeler and Gordon must start.
Miami at San Francisco
Who leads the National League in FIP? Logan Webb, who should maybe be the Cy Young favorite. Talk about an ace’s ace. The Marlins are pesky, and this is pricy, but the Marlins’ on-paper roster is better than only those of the White Sox and Rockies, and even pesky has them only 9–7 over their hot stretch.
Pick: San Francisco to win –215. 14.81 to win 6.89. Cabrera and Webb must start.
World Series
More likely than not, the Mariners will be in the playoffs, which makes their value a little more valuable in the finite world than that of the Braves, whose NLCS price offers a higher expected value using FanGraphs’s playoff odds. They’re cruising right now, but unlike in single-game markets, futures markets are weirdly anti-recency. It’s not that they doubt trends. It’s that they’re a low priority for sportsbooks, so they’re slow to react.
Pick: Seattle to win +3000. 2.00 units to win 60.00.
ALCS
This is lower EV, but the Rays are also likelier than not to make the playoffs, and as they start challenging the Yankees in the AL East race, their price is rising quickly. We’ll grab a little more on them now, not knowing how trendy they’re going to get or how much liability books have built up from the early parts of the season.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win +1200. 2.00 units to win 24.00.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –373.98 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 417 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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