Two more wins yesterday brought us to a 5–1 mark coming out of the All-Star Break. Today’s action, plus some motorsports, uses 96% of funds we’ve marked available for daily bets. Eight picks. We’d really like to win five of them.
San Francisco at Toronto
We start in Canada.
Here’s a small advantage to Robbie Ray making the All-Star Team: He’s probably more used to the Eastern Time Zone than we’d normally expect from a West Coast pitcher making a noon start. With José Berríos notoriously hard to trust, that’s enough for us to ride with Robbie.
Pick: San Francisco to win –105. 1.82 units to win 1.73. Ray and Berríos must start.
Baltimore at Tampa Bay
We’re intrigued by the prospect of an Orioles surge, but we’re probably more wary of Trevor Rogers’s potential impending regression. Still, he’s been so dang good, and the Orioles put enough pressure on Tampa Bay yesterday to leave that bullpen a little weathered as they attempt to close out a tough sweep.
Pick: Baltimore to win +107. 1.62 units to win 1.73. Rogers and Pepiot must start.
San Diego at Washington
The markets really like San Diego here, and we agree. MacKenzie Gore is a stud, but Nick Pivetta is quietly one of the most reliable pitchers in the game, and the Nationals are messy.
Pick: San Diego to win –123. 2.14 units to win 1.74. Pivetta and Gore must start.
Chicago (AL) at Pittsburgh
Will the White Sox offense score ten runs again? Maybe. Andrew Heaney’s had a rough last two starts. But Heaney’s enough of a professional and the White Sox are enough the White Sox that this price looks too good to pass up. Yes, the Pirates are the Pirates, as we said yesterday, but it’s hard to believe in a White Sox team actually getting hot.
Pick: Pittsburgh to win –132. 2.29 units to win 1.73. Civale and Heaney must start.
Kansas City at Miami
Janson Junk is terrifying to bet against, but Kris Bubic’s excellence is more sustained and makes more sense. The Marlins are a pain in the butt, but the Royals aren’t outright bad. Behind Bubic, that should be enough.
Pick: Kansas City to win –113. 1.96 units to win 1.73. Bubic and Junk must start.
Houston at Seattle
And out west, Bryan Woo’s had an emotional few weeks. We wish we weren’t betting against him, because he’s the man and the Mariners are the men and the Astros are not, but we’re getting Hunter Brown as an underdog against a guy we should assume is pretty exhausted. Even the memory of those Mariners summer surges earlier this decade aren’t enough to scare us away.
Pick: Houston to win +124. 1.40 units to win 1.74. Brown and Woo must start.
AutoTrader EchoPark Automatic 400 (NASCAR Cup Series at Dover)
Toyotas were fast in qualifying this week, and Tyler Reddick’s coming off three straight finishes in the top six. Granted, those came at a road course, a street course, and an effective superspeedway, but the point is that things are going well for Reddick. I’m curious if he’s held back in the odds here by the uncertain charter status at 23XI. If so, that reads like a short-term overreaction by the markets.
Pick: Tyler Reddick to finish top ten –150. 0.98 units to win 0.65.
Ontario Honda Dealers Indy Toronto
We end back in Canada.
Alex Palou is 7–5 on the IndyCar season, and he’s 5–3 on road and street courses. With a win today, he’d still be two wins and losses behind A.J. Foyt’s 10–3 mark in 1964, but this is still outrageous. Colton Herta’s got every reason to believe in himself today, starting from the pole at a place where he won last year (and where it’s difficult to pass). But with Alex Palou driving like Alex Palou is driving, and with Alex Palou starting on the front row beside Herta? These odds look even better than Herta’s +175.
Pick: Alex Palou to win +150. 0.44 units to win 0.66.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –486.87 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –8% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 500 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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