Today’s Best Bets: September Wasn’t That Long Ago

College football futures tomorrow. NFL futures today, plus some action tonight.


AFC South

The price here is good. The path here is simple. And we’ve got a lot on the Colts in our portfolio.

Pick: Jacksonville to win +165. 1.00 unit to win 1.65.

AFC

We understand having faith in the Bills and Ravens, and holding out hope (or wariness) when it comes to the Chiefs. But those forces are going too far in these markets. We’ll take what should become some good leverage.

Pick: Denver to win +475. 4.00 units to win 19.00.
Pick: LA Chargers to win +2000. 1.00 unit to win 20.00.

NFC

Similar story here. We keep seeing value on the Niners, and for the second straight week the Packers too.

Pick: Green Bay to win +525. 3.00 units to win 15.75.
Pick: San Francisco to win +1200. 1.00 unit to win 12.00.

Super Bowl

More Niners. More Chargers, with Justin Herbert’s latest injury seemingly only a minor issue.

Pick: San Francisco to win +2700. 1.00 unit to win 27.00
Pick: LA Chargers to win +4500. 1.00 unit to win 45.00.


Dallas at Detroit

This isn’t September, but September isn’t that far in the past. The Lions are the better team here, playing at home, with regression favoring their cause.

Pick: Detroit –3.5 (+100). 1.03 units to win 1.03.


Utah State at South Florida

It’s fair to be cautious around Utah State traveling this far and to this low an elevation.

But the Aggies, so far, haven’t shown the vulnerability USF’s shown. And they’ve showed a lot more upside.

Sometimes, we underthink things. We’ll risk that here.

Pick: Utah State +1 (–115). 1.18 units to win 1.03.

**

I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.

2025–26: –535.19 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)

2025–26: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 989 single-game markets plus four completed futures portfolios)

Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)

Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.

These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.

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The Barking Crow's resident numbers man. NIT Bracketology, college football forecasting, and things of that nature. Fields inquiries on Twitter: @joestunardi.
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