Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,122 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.1% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Movelor is heavily used in making college football picks. FPI is heavily used in making NFL picks, especially futures.
Here’s the context on each market today.
Single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 92–63–4, we’re up 20.77 units, we’re up 13% (the average line on our winners has been –110).
Single-game college football bets: On the season, we’re 5–8, and 5–6 on games involving at least one FBS team. We’re down 3.50 units, and down 27%.
Chicago (AL) @ Detroit
This is a weird one, because both teams are out of contention, but we like the Tigers a lot. José Ureña’s been pitching well in the minors for the White Sox, but even if he’s at his baseline, the value’s there, and Tarik Skubal’s been a really good starter since coming off the IL.
Pick: Detroit to win –188. Low confidence. (Ureña and Skubal must start.)
Notre Dame @ NC State
Notre Dame has its question marks, but it’s done everything asked so far of a top-ten team. We have reason to be confident that Notre Dame is one of the ten best teams in the country right now. As for NC State: We’ve been told for years that they’re on the cusp of a breakout, but the breakout’s never come. They’re an eight or nine-win ACC program, and that’s fine, but it’s not good enough to hang with a top-ten team.
Pick: Notre Dame –7 (–110). Low confidence.
Nebraska @ Colorado
None of us know how good Colorado is. We’re all guessing. Our guess? They aren’t as good as Nebraska.
The thing about Nebraska is that they didn’t grade out horrifically under Scott Frost. They lost a ton of close games for the guy, especially in his second-to-last year. There’s been plenty of turnover since then, I get that, but the Huskers didn’t look too bad against Minnesota last Thursday, and there’s reason to believe their defense is better than TCU’s. So long as they can tackle, they’ll have a chance, and we think Matt Rhule will have his guys tackling. Maybe this is another vicious heartbreaking loss for this program, but we think they’ll pull out the win, and we like the two-point cushion.
Pick: Nebraska +2.5 (–105). Low confidence.
Holy Cross @ Boston College
This is one of those FCS situations where the line’s probably wrong. Holy Cross is nowhere near as good as the FCS polls have them, but they’re a solid, competitive football team, and they’re scrappy and well-coached. Boston College is in a bad place, and this is a lot of points to get in a game where the teams are about as good as one another overall.
Pick: Holy Cross +11 (–110). Low confidence.
Mississippi @ Tulane
Is Mississippi better than Tulane? Are we sure?
I don’t understand this implicit writing-off of Tulane. It happened last week, too, against South Alabama. Lane Kiffin is doing a solid job in Oxford, but his ceiling there has been limited so far, and we don’t have a lot of indications that’s about to change. Give us the home team.
Pick: Tulane +8 (–110). Low confidence.
Iowa @ Iowa State
I understand blindly betting the under with the Army/Navy game. That one is very different from normal college football. But this is normal college football, just with an extreme offense–defense split for Iowa and a similar one, albeit less extreme, for Iowa State. If Iowa State keeps its composure, both these teams will score a few points. It might not be a ton, but it should be enough to get close, and if one team exploits a few mismatches, this over is going to get pulverized.
Pick: Over 35 (–110). Low confidence.
Texas A&M @ Miami
The arguments for Texas A&M and Miami taking a step forward this year are the same: Look at the talent. There’s more talent in College Station, though, and while Miami should take additional steps forward with Mario Cristobal in his second year, that isn’t guaranteed. We trust the Aggies more than the Hurricanes, and we like the Aggies’ upside more.
Pick: Texas A&M –3 (–110). Low confidence.
SMU @ Oklahoma
Oklahoma looked like they could be the best team in the country last week, and while they won’t be—the talent isn’t there—they could well be the best team in the Big 12. If I were to hazard a guess, I’d say it’s them. SMU isn’t in the same sphere as Oklahoma, and if Oklahoma is as willing to blow SMU out as they were willing to blow out Arkansas State, I think they will.
Pick: Oklahoma –16 (–110). Low confidence.
Texas @ Alabama
This is interesting. It’s a close enough line that it could conceivably push in even a virtual tie, but it’s also a full seven points, which is a lot. Ultimately, taking Texas here requires a leap of faith that the Longhorns have gotten within four points of Alabama in terms of overall quality as a football team. I think Steve Sarkisian’s doing a great job, but getting within four points of Alabama would mean Texas is a top-five team, and that’s a big thing to say about a program that hasn’t been there in so, so long. Maybe they prove something tonight. More likely, Alabama takes some of the air out of the burnt orange balloon.
Pick: Alabama –7 (–110). Low confidence.
