Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –1.9% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,745 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.6% across 2,293 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We rely heavily on Nate Silver’s presidential election model for our election futures. For college football bets, we primarily use our own model. For NFL bets, we lean on ESPN’s FPI.
Active markets today: MLB moneylines and single-game college football.
Here’s the history on each and how we approach them:
MLB moneylines: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%. We’re 162–136–4 so far this year, down 5.14 units. Four weeks ago, we pivoted to a different set of systems. We’re 50–34–1 since the pivot, up 7.66 units. The biggest driver of that success has been Heat Index, our pet metric which gauges the gap between how hot different teams is. Together, Heat Index’s top two choices are 34–10–1 and up 14.61 units. Heat Index’s second choice is more successful than its first, but the sample is small on both and smaller on the second.
Single-game college football bets: Our history here is mediocre, and true to form, we’re 4–6 so far this year. We’re down 2.44 units heading into today.
Philadelphia @ Miami
We got bit by this yesterday, so to make something clear: The starting pitchers don’t affect our Heat Index picks. We only include them because they make it simpler to track, as some books will move the odds if you accept “action” on the starters.
Heat Index is still just about who has the biggest gap over their opponent in wRC+ and FIP–. This pick pushed last night, but the Phillies did win.
Pick: Philadelphia to win –235. Low confidence. (Nola and McCaughan must start.)
Colorado @ Milwaukee
The Brewers lost last night, but they’re still Heat Index’s preferred second choice. Somehow, that was the first time Heat Index 2 has lost. It’s 14–1.
Pick: Milwaukee to win –268. Low confidence. (Blach and Myers must start.)
Texas @ Michigan
With early results poor and our September performance poor last year, we’re trying to bide our time with this and not dig too deep a hole. We’re taking just one pick, and based on what limited history we have, we’re fading Movelor in a game it has almost ten points different than this spread. The thought here is basically that the market is held back by overweighting the same thing we know Movelor overweights—last year’s performance. That’s the theory behind the phenomenon we’ve seen.
Pick: Texas –6.5 (–114). Low confidence.
