Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,519 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.6% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Baltimore @ New York (AL)
Chris Ellis has managed good results so far this year, but it’s been just three outings, and the best of those, ironically, came against the Baltimore Orioles when Ellis was still a member of the Rays.
Pick: New York (AL) -1.5 (-175). Low confidence.
San José State @ Southern California
San José State went undefeated in last year’s regular season, capping the affair off with a two-touchdown victory over Boise State before losing by three scores to Ball State in the Arizona Bowl. It was a great season for the Spartans, who hadn’t won seven games since 2012, and hopes are high for this year.
Should they be?
Yes, San José State had a great year. They were a solid team. But the performance coming in such an odd season…the Ball State blowout there at the end…the disappointing competition within the Mountain West…I don’t know. I just don’t see it. Maybe I’m wrong.
Pick: Southern California -14 (-110). Low confidence.
